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Today’s interview is with Michelle You, Founder, Supercritical
The Carbon Removal Crunch
Why should companies with 2030 net-zero goals be acting now to secure CDR supply?
There’s sometimes this view that credits will be there whenever people need them - whether it’s tomorrow, 2030, or 2050. But the reality is very different. The carbon removal market doesn’t scale itself—it scales with demand. And right now, the demand needed to trigger that growth is only coming from a small group of forward-thinking companies. And until more buyers emerge to stimulate growth, supply will be very limited.
High-quality supply is already vanishing fast: 62% of 2025’s biochar credits are already spoken for, and 28% of supply is secured through 2026 via offtakes. It’s a clear sign of what’s to come: less availability, rising prices, and a market that favors early movers.
For companies with 2030 net zero goals, this isn’t a future problem. It’s a now problem. Waiting means gambling with access, budget, and brand credibility. The only way to guarantee high-quality removals at predictable prices is to secure offtake agreements today. Waiting until 2029 is the real risk.
Winners & Losers in CDR
How is the market splitting between early movers and those at risk of scarcity and price hikes?
The carbon removal market is splitting in two—and the gap is only widening.
On one side are the early movers: companies securing multi-year offtakes now, locking in high-quality credits at predictable prices. On the other, those still sitting on the sidelines, hoping the supply they’ll need in 2028 or 2030 will be there when they need it.
This divergence is no longer hypothetical—it’s already playing out. Spot market buyers faced shortages last year, and prices are climbing. Biochar alone has seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29% over the past four years. That’s not just inflation—it’s what happens when demand starts to outstrip supply in a market that’s still in its infancy.
If even 10% of SBTi signatories entered the market today, we’d need to scale supply 25x to meet demand. That scale-up won’t happen overnight—especially for high-integrity removals with complex verification and infrastructure requirements.
This is why offtakes matter. They aren’t just a procurement mechanism; they’re a hedge against volatility, a bet on supply security, and—critically—a signal to project developers to build.
Biochar’s Big Moment
What makes biochar the most scalable and cost-effective engineered removal method today?
Biochar is having a breakout moment—and for good reason. It’s currently the most accessible permanent carbon removal method on the market, offering a rare mix of high technological maturity, circular economy benefits, and unmatched cost efficiency.
At an average spot price of $162 per tonne, biochar is the lowest-cost engineered removal pathway available—far below enhanced weathering ($312) and direct air capture ($618), and just behind nature-based solutions like reforestation ($58). But unlike most nature-based methods, biochar locks carbon away for centuries.
What makes biochar truly scalable, though, is its modular deployment model. It doesn’t rely on mega-facilities or billion-dollar infrastructure. Biochar can be produced locally, anywhere there’s access to waste biomass. That means new projects can come online quickly, be tailored to regional needs, and scale incrementally with demand. It’s a distributed model that aligns perfectly with the urgency and geographic diversity of the carbon removal challenge.
The benefits go beyond carbon. Biochar production diverts agricultural and forestry waste from decomposing and releasing CO₂, transforming it into a stable form of carbon. When applied to soil, it improves fertility and water retention—delivering real co-benefits to farmers and landowners.
But the market isn’t easy to navigate. Biochar today is dominated by a fragmented mix of small, often privately owned projects. That creates major gaps in transparency, quality assurance, and delivery confidence. And is why more people are relying on Supercritical’s marketplace.
Locking in Supply
How do offtake agreements help companies secure future removals at stable prices?
No offtakes, no supply. It really is that simple.
Offtake agreements are how companies secure access to future carbon removals at predictable prices, with protection against the volatility already hitting the spot market. They’re not just a procurement tool. They’re a strategic lever for meeting long-term net zero targets with confidence.
And the economics are compelling. Companies buying via offtakes today can save up to 31% compared to waiting and purchasing on the spot market. This is already happening. The buyers locking in multi-year agreements are securing the best projects, the best pricing, and the confidence that they’ll actually have the removals they need when it counts.
Acting Without Policy Certainty
What’s driving leading companies to invest in CDR now, rather than waiting for regulation?
The science is settled: there’s no path to net zero without carbon removal. But while many companies are waiting for regulation to catch up, the leaders are already moving. Companies like Microsoft and Google, and our customers such as Rothschild & Co and The Economist Group are taking action now. They understand that voluntary action today is the only way to scale supply in time for 2030—and certainly for 2050.
The recent proposed updates to SBTi’s net zero standard are welcome. The formal recognition of CDR is a good start, but limiting it to Scope 1 emissions won’t create a strong enough incentive for companies to choose CDR credits. So far, these changes don’t go far enough to stimulate demand outside a few companies. Even without policy mandates, the fundamental challenge remains: if buyers don’t start purchasing removals today, we won’t have the gigaton-scale capacity needed in 2050.
Future-Proofing Net Zero Strategies
What’s your top advice for sustainability leaders navigating the evolving CDR market?
The carbon removal market is in its defining moment. We’re in classic market formation territory—where early movers aren’t just buying credits, they’re shaping supply, setting standards, and securing future access.
If you’re a sustainability leader with a net zero mandate, the message is clear: you can’t afford to wait. Delaying action means missing out on high-quality supply, facing rising costs, and losing strategic ground to competitors who’ve already locked in their pathways.
Future-proofing your strategy means getting ahead of the curve—today. That starts with understanding your long-term removal needs, engaging in offtakes to de-risk future supply, and aligning your procurement with what’s scientifically and operationally credible. Lock in Now, or Get Left Behind.
Unbound Summits’ mission focuses on unrivalled connections, new insights and unbound CDR opportunities. You can learn more about how Supercritical’s marketplace helps corporate buyers navigate the carbon removal market, build portfolios of vetted credits, and securely transact spot purchases here.
